Unless you’re just tuning in following a brief stint in a coma, you’re probably a little sick of all the election coverage that we’ve been seeing. You’re also probably feeling quite relieved, elated, or upset (delete as applicable) about the election result itself. Which of course, is that the Liberal party have won the election. Whether they will form a minority or a majority government is yet to become apparent.
So what happened federally?
Well, in one of the fastest and most unexpected political turnarounds in recent memory, the Liberal party (under new leader Mark Carney) managed to reverse a staggering 25-point lead held by the Conservatives (under leader Pierre Poilievre). This largely came in the form of NDP and Green voters switching to the Liberals for their federal election votes – though it should be noted that the Conservatives saw a drop of around 4% also.
| Vote Share | January 17th 2025 (Polling intentions by Nanos Research) | April 28th 2025 Federal Election with 99% of polls reporting |
| Liberal | 20.8% | ↑ 43.5% |
| Conservative | 45.2% | ↓ 41.4% |
| NDP | 18.7% | ↓ 6.3% |
| BQ | 7.7% | ↓ 6.4% |
| Green | 5.3% | ↓ 1.2% |
In terms of seat numbers, there wasn’t as much movement as Carney would have hoped for the Liberals, gaining only 8* seats versus their performance in 2021. The Conservatives on the other hand were able to add around 25* seats while the NDP suffered a wipeout, pulling through with 18* less seats than their previous performance.
| Seats | September 20th 2021 Federal Election Results | April 28th 2025 Federal Election Results* |
| Liberal | 160 (short of 170 majority) | ↑ 168 (short of 172 majority) |
| Conservatives | 119 | ↑ 144 |
| NDP | 25 | ↓ 7 |
| BQ | 32 | ↓ 23 |
| Green | 2 | ↓ 1 |
What about locally? How did the leaders do?
Well, bit of a mixed bag really. Mark Carney, who has never run for public office, won his riding handily. On the other hand, Pierre Poilievre lost his seat in a stunning upset – losing his seat in parliament for the first time in 20 years.
Less surprising was Jagmeet Singh losing his seat – the NDP performed poorly at this election in general, partly thanks to a shift toward the Liberals. Following his result, he resigned as leader of the NDP (once an interim leader is selected).
| Leader / Seat | Carney Nepean | Poilievre Carleton | Singh Burnaby Central | Blanchet Beloeil-Chambly | Pedneault Outremont | May Saanich-Gulf Islands |
| Party | Lib. | Con. | NDP | BQ | Green | Green |
| Result | WIN* | LOST* | LOST* | WON* | LOST* | WON* |
| Lib. | 63.7% | 50.6% | 42.1% | 33.9% | 55% | 31.8% |
| Con. | 33.4% | 46.1% | 38.7% | 13.4% | 12.6% | 25.4% |
| NDP | 2% | 1.4% | 18.1% | 3.5% | 10.6% | 4% |
| BQ | N/A | N/A | N/A | 48.4% | 12.2% | N/A |
| Green | 0.6% | 0.6% | N/A | N/A | 9.7% | 38.8% |
Why did things change so much?
A few months ago it looked all but certain that the Liberals were heading for a crushing defeat. While there are many factors at play in terms of influencing the election outcome, here’s what I believe were some of the biggest contributing factors on Canadian minds:
- Donald Trump is elected President of the United States
Following a controversial election campaign of his own, and an election win, Donald Trump becomes President again in January of 2025. - Justin Trudeau steps down as leader of the Liberal Party
After months of speculation regarding the future of his party, and the stepping down of his own Deputy, Justin Trudeau steps down as party leader and triggers a leadership election with Mark Carney as the apparent front-runner. - Donald Trump announces sweeping tariffs to be applied to Canadian goods
In his final weeks as Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau works with the nations Premiers to present a united and firm front in the face of the oncoming trade war. - Mark Carney is elected as Liberal Party leader, becomes Prime Minister and cancels the Carbon Tax
Following a short leadership election, Mark Carney is elected Liberal Party leader in a landslide election. Following his election, Carney follows through on one of his campaign promises and as his first action cancels the consumer-facing Carbon Tax – reducing gas prices by an average of 20c/l. - Donald Trump continues to vaguely threaten Canada’s sovereignty
With repeated posts on Truth Social, Trump continues to post that Canada would be better off as the “51st State” of America – falsely claiming that the US subsidizes Canada.
In addition to these stressors, the Conservatives didn’t really do much to present themselves as a strong alternative. Prior to the federal election, much of the Conservative party campaigning had been a simple double-jab at the Liberals:
- We aren’t Justin Trudeau
- Cancel the Carbon Tax
In the wake of the Liberal leadership election, the Conservatives and Pierre in particular seemed to have difficulty with pivoting their strategy. It was clear that they had assumed Trudeau would remain as leader until the general election and they simply didn’t have a plan B. Ultimately, I suspect that Poilievres inability to transition into a positive message of hope is the largest factor in his party not picking up votes from disenfranchised voters. Carney and the Liberals saw this gap, and campaigned on a message of “Canada Strong”, painting a picture of a nation that could survive this storm, stronger and united.
Turns out, that’s the message Canadians needed right now.
Footnotes:
*Based on “Won or Leading” results as already declared or as polling suggests, per CBC News as of 08:00ET on April 29th 2025.
